HFCs and alternative refrigerants: postponing the transition may increase the risk of future shortages

The transition to low-GWP refrigerants continues to be one of the most delicate steps for the HVAC/R industry. Regulatory decisions that extend the use periods of HFCs may offer greater flexibility in the short term, especially for commercial refrigeration and food distribution, but they risk generating new critical issues in the medium to long term.

The key issue concerns the future availability of refrigerants . If new systems continue to be installed with HFCs for several more years, demand for gas for maintenance, service, and refills could remain high even as available supplies continue to decline. For the refrigeration supply chain, this scenario raises a strategic question: could the initial advantage of postponing the transition translate into higher costs and operational difficulties in the coming years?

HFC Phase-down: The crux of immediate flexibility and future availability

The postponement of some deadlines can be interpreted as a relief for operators who have not yet defined a strategy for transitioning to lower-climate solutions. In particular, the ability to continue using HFC refrigerants with GWPs below certain thresholds can reduce the initial investment and allow retailers and commercial refrigeration operators to postpone complex decisions.

However, this choice must be evaluated over the entire life cycle of the system. A commercial refrigeration system can remain operational for many years and require maintenance, repairs, and refrigerant replenishment throughout its useful life. If, in the meantime, HFC quotas continue to decline, the gases required for service will risk becoming more expensive, less available, or more difficult to source.

For refrigeration operators, therefore, the evaluation should not stop at the initial cost of the system, but also consider:

• future availability of refrigerant;
• maintenance and replenishment costs;
• risk of rising HFC prices;
• need for regenerated or recovered refrigerant for service;
• operational continuity of the plants throughout their life cycle.

In this framework, the transition is not just a regulatory issue, but a technical and economic planning choice.

Recovery, regeneration and leak control become essential

As the availability of virgin HFCs continues to decline , recovery, recycling, and regeneration strategies are becoming increasingly important. Refrigerants can no longer be considered an easily replaceable resource: they must be carefully managed, with traceability and proper procedures.

This is especially true for centralized direct expansion systems , which can have high loads and, in the event of leaks, generate significant environmental and economic impacts. Leak management will therefore not only be a compliance requirement, but also an operational requirement to preserve available supplies and reduce the risk of plant downtime.

For the supply chain, this means strengthening some fundamental practices :

• early detection of leaks;
• scheduled and documented maintenance;
• correct recovery of refrigerant during interventions;
• use of regenerated refrigerant when expected and available;
• traceability of movements and service activities.

In a scenario of more limited availability, maintenance quality becomes a competitive factor. Operators capable of reducing leaks and properly managing refrigerants will be able to reduce costs, risks, and operational criticalities.

CO₂, R290, and A2L: Plan the transition today to avoid instability tomorrow

Alternative technologies are already available for many commercial refrigeration applications. CO₂ systems, R290 solutions , and A2L refrigerants represent increasingly mature options, with different characteristics in terms of system architecture, safety, efficiency, and scalability.

Choosing the most suitable solution depends on the type of application, the format of the store, the climate, the size of the system, the availability of trained technicians, and the operator's sustainability goals. There is no single answer, but it is increasingly important to evaluate the situation early, avoiding delaying the transition until market conditions make it more difficult to intervene.

For refrigeration designers, installers, maintenance technicians, and operators, the message is clear: switching to low-GWP refrigerants cannot be approached simply as a regulatory requirement. It's a choice that impacts future service availability, operating costs, risk management, and system resilience.

Postponement can offer an immediate advantage, but it increases the risk of shortages, price increases, and management complexity. Planning ahead, however, allows you to choose technologies that are more consistent with the system's life cycle, train the technical network, and build a more stable, sustainable, and less HFC-dependent refrigeration strategy.